Predictions

"North Korea is often described as ’strange’ or ‘paranoid’ country. Nothing can be further from the truth, leading North Korea-watcher Andrei Lankov argues. North Korea’s leaders are rational and far-sighted, and they are successful survivors and master diplomats who have outsmarted even the most formidable adversaries.

They know that doing as many tell them to — surrender the nuclear programme and emulate Chinese reforms — will be almost suicidal. The existence of the rich (and free) South makes their situation completely different from that of China. Their stubborn unwillingness to abandon the old system, however inefficient and brutal it might be, is a rational strategic choice.

That said, North Korea is changing — often against the clearly expressed wishes of its rulers, says Dr Lankov. The North Koreans have discovered markets and the old hyper-Stalinist system of surveillance lost much of its efficiency. In the long run, these changes will probably be decisive.

For all the predictions of North Korea’s impending collapse, Dr Lankov, who is based in Seoul, argues that the endgame is probably years ahead — and is unlikely to be smooth."

Foreign Correspondent's Club of China. The logic of survival: North Korea, against all odds.